REVOLUTION: How Will Jonathan Sustain Peaceful Co-Existence in the Squishy Nigeria
By Professor Femi Ajayi
The predictions, the permutations on the demise of Nigeria in the squishy arrangement are already gathering some momentum in the country. The Prophets have joined analysts, the predictive indexes that Nigeria is on fire, which will consume the ‘White Elephant’ country refers to as the ‘giant’ of Africa.
How much muscle does Jonathan’s administration have, to sustain the fragile co-existence of various nations within Nigeria? Succumbing to the pressure that a Federal Ministry has to be created for the North would further heightened the quick way for further disintegration of Nigeria as separate Federal Ministries have to be established for any other regional challenges facing Nigeria like OPC and MASSOP. A state that is grappling with insecurity, filth, hooliganism, unemployment, incessant traffic gridlock, poverty, among other devastating fiasco, is revolution or breaking up the answer.
According to the recent publication about 67m Nigerian Youths are jobless while 80 per cent of them do not possess a university degree. Coincidentally the poverty level in Nigeria is In Nigeria is rising with almost 100 million people living on less than $1 a day despite strong growth. The two indexes is enough testimony that Nigeria is in for real volcanic migraine headache.
Ironically the official unemployed Nigerian Youth today, May 2012, is higher than the populations of 18 countries in Africa (67,915,039) put together: Cape Verde (429,474), Mauritius (1,281,214), Sierra Leone (5,867,536), Lesotho (2,171,318), Sao Tome (159,883), Rwanda (10,624,005), Burundi, 8,382,849, Gambia (1,728,394), Togo, (6,027,798), Mauritania (3,459,773), Namibia (2,283,289), Equatorial Guinea (700,401), Djibouti (888,716), Liberia (3,994,122), Guinea (9,981,590), Swaziland (1,186,056), Benin Republic (8,662,086), and Seychelles (86,525).
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, Monday, February 13, 2012 indicated that while Nigeria economy could be growing it has been projected that the poverty level is likely to get worse as the gap between the affluent Nigerians and the majority poor Nigerians continues to broaden. Ironically North-East and North-West, where the Boko Haram sect originated, 76.3% and 77.7% poverty level respectively. Sokoto score is 71.5% and Niger States with 71.5%, topped the list of the poorest states in the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
The South West, where Western Education strives well, has the lowest levels of poverty. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) the percentage of Nigerians living in absolute poverty, that is, those who can afford only the bare essentials of food, shelter and clothing, rose to 60.9 per cent in 2010, compared with 54.7 per cent in 2004.
When Nigerians blether about bloody revolution, considering its available indexes in Nigeria today, (2012); its shambles education system, the rising in youth unemployment as indicated above, leading to frustration, the rise in crime and violence, what would be the natural reaction? What shape is the revolution going to take? In a sense, does revolution has to be brutal or bloody as witnessed in some parts of the world?
Is Nigeria going to go through scientific, social, industrial, political and socioeconomic revolutions; or is it going to be like French, American, Bolshevik, or Xinhua style of Revolution; or is it going to be pure Naija Revolution? The April 2011 Nigeria election already ushered in Nigeria’s own stylish revolution.
Learning from 2010s insurgents around the world, copy-cat Nigeria is possibly borrowing from the Kyrgyzstani, Yemeni, Bahraini, Syrian uprisings; Tunisia, Libyan, Egyptian revolution; Riots in Bangkok; and Iranian, Algerian, Iraq, Jordanian, Moroccan, Omani protests, to arrive at its ongoing stylish revolution.
Aristotle describes the two types of political revolution as the complete change from one constitution to another and modification of an existing constitution. Nigeria is stylishly going through that.
While the most recent of the revolution knocking at the Nigeria corridors, is what the Militants, Kidnappers and Boko Haram have designed for the country. This is the case of a pot calling a kettle black. Niger Delta Militants, Kidnappers and Boko Haram are terrorists that have killed innocent people.
When the conventional revolution actually hits Nigeria Street, which zone will survive? Would Igbo take the lead through MASSOP? Would Hausa struggle not to cut off the umbilical cord using religion through Boko Haram, with their leaders still pampering the group? Would Yoruba continue to fight its ‘Enemies Within’, using its OPC in addition to its popular Pull Him Down Syndrome tactics?
Revolution has occurred in human history and varies widely in terms of methods, duration, and motivating ideology. The results are reflected in major changes in culture, economy, and socio-political institutions.
Definitely the culture of corruption in Nigeria will be changed through the on-going investigations, probes, hearings in the country, especially the oil subsidy palaver, which the cabals wanted to chop-off Bukola Saraki’s head for dare sponsored that motion on the Senate floor on oil subsidy, which the House capitalized on. Earlier Sanusi has predicted on the oil subsidy issue now igniting some serious challenges for Jonathan’s administration. Regardless how the country manages its resources in boosting its economy will find a new approach, while Nigerians rethink on electing their representatives.
The predictions for Nigeria for hard times as hunger, anger, loss of jobs, insecurity, terrorism, anarchy are already on the ground as of May 2012. The Military should remain in their barracks and allow the democratic process to resolve the stage Nigeria is going through. Jonathan Administration should keep on pumping more iron into its muscles in curtailing the challenges.
Theologian Obasanjo stated in 2011 that mass protest is in the offing in Nigeria. In his own permutation to the impending upheaval, he predicted that he (Obasanjo) would be a victim and number one target if revolution happens in Nigeria anytime from now.
On Tuesday, December 6, 2011, Alhaji Ahmed Hassan Al-Ghazali told Northern leaders to prepare for a bloody revolution, so long as they chose to allow the teeming population of the youth in the north to continue to roam the streets hopelessly. Nonetheless bloody revolution is not the solution.
In January 2012, at an inter-denomination church service, to mark the 2012 Armed Forces Remembrance Day at the National Christian Centre Abuja, President Goodluck Jonathan revealed that the extremists were now present in the executive, legislative and judiciary arms of government and even in the armed forces. The reason he gave to have caused some challenges for the security agencies to deal with the menace, costing loss of life and properties.
Christian Elders Forum of Northern States (NOSCEF), April March 31, 2012, stated that what is coming down the country is Jesus’ revolution. While the Moslems would claim that it is time for Jihad. According to NOSCEF, “the Jesus revolution is all we need, to halt the drift to extinction. A revolution of true patriotism, selfless leadership, care for the poor and the needy, will pull us back from the precipice.”
Verbal Revolution has been on among the good fruits of Nigeria on the Internet. Lord have Mercy! Any issue that comes up for discussion on the Internet before you know it, it has turned into Ngbati-Ngbati against Yanminrin, or Gambari against okoro. The languages used on each other are not good for our readers’ consumption.
The Nigerian Labor Congress has been on with its own style of revolution against its employers both at the Federal, State and Local Governments of Nigeria with its legal tactics of non-violence strike actions at every single unfulfilled demand from their employers. Such strike action paralyzes some sectors on their services to humanity, most especially in the Health sector. Wealthy Nigerians get treatment abroad like Senate President just did in India (April 2012), and the rumoured that Gov Fashola flew his critically ill father to the States, accompanied by one Dr. Williams, Fashola’s brother-in-law, of Ebute-Meta Health Center, while poor Nigerians die in their homes for lack of medical attention.
Coincidentally Lagos State, May 7, 2012, fired 788 striking Physicians who had been on strike since April 16 2012, to be replaced by 373 doctors for immediate deployment into the public hospitals while recruitment continues. The merit of such action would be determined down the road.
Dynamite is being used by armed robbers to rob Banks, while most Nigerians are patronizing banking business today (2012). Some white collar workers in their quest to have shelter, provide for the family, and take care of the essentials of their life resolve into some dishonest practices as the societal norm.
The only solution Professor Jibril Aminu, a Professor of cardiology, could prescribe for Nigeria is to call for the disbandment of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) to stop Muslim elements from forming a parallel national body that might be called Muslim Association of Nigeria, (MAN). Jibril Aminu should be reminded how Nigeria was wheedled into the Organization of Islamic Organization as a cabinet member of Babangida’s administration. As Education Minister, 1989-1992, under Babangida, Jibril Aminu colluded with other cabinet members and dismantled Nigeria Education system. He was one of those that really impecunious education in the North.
At the wake of the uncontainable Boko Haram insurgents, to the disappointment of the entire world, Northern Elites, Religious, Traditional, and Military leaders, are confused by their ignorance on how the North got to the point of hatred between Moslems and Christians. This might be drumming the end of Lord Lugard’s dream of a united Nigeria. Prof. Ango Abdullahi, Vice Chancellor, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, described Lord Fredrick Lugard’s exercise as a “great and tragic mistake”.
In the words of Fredrick Lord Lugard about Nigerians and African people using the north as his blue-print –“He {an African} loves the display of power, but fails to realise its responsibility …. Perhaps the two traits which have impressed me as those most characteristic of the African native are his lack of apprehension and his ability to visualize the future.”
Professor Ango-Abdullahi should look into Lugard’s words and if he would still come back to consider Lugard’s arrangement a “great and tragic mistake”, considering European reasoning in amalgamating the North and South protectorates in 1914.
Buhari’s silence on the atrocities of Boko Haram, which started after the 2011 elections, with the killings of innocent Nigerians, including the NYSC members, is of great concern to the world. The Boko Haram issue is a National disgrace, and more of than embarrassment to all the Northern Military, Political, Religious, Community leaders. Where is the north today besides the birth of Boko Haram, hiding under paucity, low education, women insolvency, and the leadership blasé attitude in improving the conditions of their subjects?
Definitely Buhari’s band of overzealous and over-ambitious military mentality overthrew the democratically elected government of Shehu Shagari, which eventually opened up Nigeria transition into active corruption of eight years of circuitous Babangida dictatorship down to malevolence years of Sani Abacha with the loss of great Nigerians such as Mamman Vatsa, Dele Giwa, Gideon Orkar, Shehu Musa Yar’Adua MKO Abiola and many others.
Since General Buhari has announced at the gathering of the CPC recently (April 2012) that he would stay in politics to sanitize the country, since he is not electable, he has joined others to echo revolution happening in Nigeria in the midst of Boko Haram insurgents. In his words, “I am still in until the polity is sanitised and people enjoy the fruits of democracy at all levels of government.” Buhari, as a free Nigerian, not from Niger Republic, is free to contest for election in 2015, as well as Jonathan, as Buhari did in 2003, 2007, and 2011. He warned that “by 2015 whoever stole public funds has automatically sentence himself to death,”
Somebody has to educate Buhari that name recognition and popularity have to be matched with national political party, well spread across the country to win national election. Buhari should step aside and assist the younger and brilliant people around him to build CPC or work out appropriate alignments with other political parties that will better situate a potential candidate to win a national election in 2015.
All the northern Governors as Chief Securities of their States, without exception, are failures.
The fact that the Northern leaders could not do something about Boko Haram insurgents is a pointer that they are not keen in the Nigeria unity. United States should not deny the fact that Northern leaders crippled the North, so creating a Ministry for the north is far from the solution. The report card of the Northern leaders in the corridors of power at one time or the other have shown how shoddily they governed the country, and how they impoverished the North to the position it is today (May 2012).
The North Golden Years were from Gowon 1966-1975; Murtala 1975-1976; Shehu Shagari from 1979-1983; Buhari-Idiagbon 1983-1985; Babangida 1985-1993, Abacha from 1993 till 1988, Abdul Salam from 1988 – 1999; Yar’Adua 2007-2010. That was when the north could have developed at the envy of other groups in Nigeria.
Indexes of the revolution are on the ground. The ceaseless violence in the Northern part of Nigeria is a sign of bad times. The Pepper soup Generals mindset has to be reconfigured into the Nigeria stylish revolution, not through the barrel of gun.
Babangida has disgracefully bowed out from active politics, so also his comic friend of “a fool at seventy”, and “a bigger fool” who just resigned as the PDP BOT Chairman. General Abdul Salam humbly refused to be in active politics; Gowon never thought of vigorous politics since he retired despite his Ph.D. in Political Science from a London University. Buhari is yet to be told by the hungry Almajiris that they are potential future leaders as well not just the pass over human beings.
The question is how long would the administration sustain the level of Nigeria Modish Revolution? According to George Santayana, “Those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them.”