The Untold Stories of Ogun Governorship Elections Between 1979 And 2023
By
Ajiroba Dapo Oke ,FCIA, fisn
No amount of narratives can alter the truth, but the disputants must have access to the truth.
This paper examines the various account of misconcieved narrations about the governorship race in Ogun state with a view to putting the story of Ogun west in its proper perspectives away from the ways many self acclaimed historians and storytellers are presenting the facts in their usual fictions before the general public. This has become more expedient in the barefaced lies and various misconceptions being concocted by the story tellers.
Their intentions are towards making the general public believe that the people of Ogun West were solely responsible for their several election losses. These, according to their narratives, were due largely to the inability of the region to unite and produce consensus candidate for the governorship race during those attempts. It is not difficult to envisage their main objective, which basically was to present the zone as a tarnished brand in order to prepare ways for acceptance of their political camps’ agenda most of the time.
It is, therefore, the intention of this paper to examine the political and non-political roles played by different state actors, individuals, groups, and various factors in the theatrical episodes of Ogun gubernatorial race at different times. It also explained convincingly that even though the three Senatorial constituencies are presumably of equal size in population, inequalities of electoral structures, dictators ability, method of consent and maneuverings among other factors appeared to have played significant roles in many of the problems the zone faced.
Ogun State, since its creation in 1976, has had ten political transitions that produced five executive governors who had governed the state in successions. Two of them were from Egba Division, one from Ijebu Division, while the remaining two came from Remo Division. Obviously, the old Egbado Division among the four Divisions of the State is yet to produce the governor throughout the 48 years of her history. When translated into the 1999 constitutional framework of the three Senatorial constituencies, it would be seen that Ogun Central which is Egba Division had produced two Governors; the Ogun East that consist of Ijebu and Remo Divisions have produced three while Ogun west that is now Yewa and Awori has not had the opportunity of producing anyone to occupy the exalted position
Various causal explanations had been advanced why Ogun west district or the Yewa (Egbado) Division had failed in all the attempts to occupy the Executive seat of governance in the State. The general public is always being fed and misled through the narratives that Ogun west people cannot unite or speak in one voice in the matter of choice of candidate as the major reason for the electoral failures of the region. This mono-causal explanation often put forward by the people from other districts of the State is only intended to find justification for the many underground political dealings and horse tradings that usually play dominant roles in all the elections
It is a common knowledge that the people of Ogun west had been painted with a long history of disunity among its sub ethnic groups, the historical accounts of all the elections in the State has rather shown that the only time disunity can be cited as the last straw that broke the camel’s back in the political agenda of the people was during the 1991 primary election of SDP. In that election, Professor Afolabi Olabimtan and other aspirants could not reach a consensus to present a candidate to face Akinrogun Segun Osoba and other contestants from Egba division. It was, however, clear that both the Egba and the Egbado presented multiple candidates in that election, while the leadership of the party worked for the emergence of Akinrogun Osoba for other reasons. All other elections before and after 1991 notably 1979, 1999,2003,2011,2015, 2019 and 2023 have been products of internal political wrangling among the major players and power brokers in the state politics including the crises in the political parties mostly caused by the state actors.
It should be noted that the storytellers have failed to accurately report that it’s only when Ogun West was contesting that the leading political party will be engulfed in major crises. That’s when the incumbent governors will be having issues with the party leadership resulting in major crises, or when new yardsticks will be introduced to determine special qualifications for the aspirants. They usually tell the stories of electoral failure of the district without giving the root cause and raison d’être of the originating problems. Their narratives usually talk about the effects without examining the causes of the events and without giving prominence to many other details.
For emphasis, it should be noted that each election since the return of democratic rule in 1999 usually comes with two dynamics; notably, this had been consistently between the huge popular dynamics of CHANGE and CONTINUITY And so the 1999 election in Ogun State was aided by the NADECO factors with the Afenifere leaders in firm control. It was, therefore, the relics of hope ’93 dynamic (continuity) that swept the poll in AD throughout all the South West States. In 2003, the Osoba administration had become unpopular in the state despite declaring the various achievements of his regime. Hence, the tide favoured change against the continuity dynamic. In 2007, the people voted for continuity in PDP, and the proponents of change in ANPP failed. In 2011, the political situation in Ogun State made it possible for ACN to come up with a change slogan against the Apostles of continuity in PDP. It was continuity of APC regime in 2015 again that gave reality to the defeat of change proposed by PDP while the internal change dynamic in APC arising from the political stock of Governor Amosun’s administration defeated his continuity agenda in 2019 and prevented the change proposed from outside the ruling party. Again, in 2023, the continuity dynamic swept the poll against the change dynamic proposed by the Amosun factor in ADC . In all these, it should be noted that the incumbent governors created most of the scenes that drove the political transition agenda via the two dynamics. Unfortunately, none of them have been able to produce a successor despite t5heir heavily financed transition programmes
Many of these issues revealed the temperament and character flaws of the Chief Executives of the State and virtues of political consideration of their succession plans which has provided a window onto a great history of how they lost control of the state after their regime. We will all recall that when they are seeking second term in office, they create most favourable enabling environment that made their parties succeed at the poll but on their exit after spending their second term in office, they create most of the problems that made the ruling party unfit to succeed itself. Thus, apart from 2019, when APC won the election for obvious political reasons, no party in the history of Ogun state has ever succeeded itself back to back.
Then, of course, there was also the deluded creation of their whitewash accounts that Ogun West candidates are usually referred to as losers. They tend to create an impression that Ogun West candidates are not serious candidates who can win election. It is very hard to imagine such a great error of judgment and a more pathetic presentation of a subjective one-sided analysis of historical facts that suggest that candidates from other Senatorial districts have not been losing elections. In 1979,Soji Odunjo lost the election to Bisi Onabanjo. In 1999, Are Jubril Martins Kuye lost the gubernatorial race to Osoba, in 2003, the sitting governor Osoba lost the election to Otunba Gbenga Daniel while in 2007, Ibikunle Amosun lost to Otunba Gbenga Daniel. The reasons for the losses were simply because they contested in unpopular political parties. The story tellers in their narratives again failed to capture the truth that JMK and others lost in those elections due to the same reasons Ogun West had been losing in other elections. Unfortunately too, the writers have been turning their faces away from the historical fact that Akinrogun Osoba with all the powers of incumbency also lost his second term bid in 2003 in a dramatic way which was an indication that elections can be won and lost as a result of too many factors.
In 2003, when Ogun West could have had a golden opportunity to come to power, Dele Arojo, the leading governorship aspirant from Ogun West in PDP, was assassinated by unknown gunmen. It is surprising that none of the story tellers have posted that 2003 was an advantage snatched by Ogun East in the aftermath of the death of Arojo or acknowledge the roles Ogun west political leaders played in the two terms emergence of Otunba Gbenga Daniel from Ogun East and in the re election of Prince Dapo Abiodun in 2023.
The storytellers always emphasise the problem of multiple candidates from Ogun West District harping more seriously on issues of consensus. It should be noted, however, that OGD emerged through a primary among the multiple candidates from Ogun East and the fact that none of the other contestants deemed it fit to step down for one another. None of the story tellers had ever acknowledged that functional election system would permit multiple candidacy, while the opportunity to present convincing candidate through the democratic method of selection and free discussions in the overriding interest of the state is the responsibilty of the political parties. We should note that the PDP leadership in 2003 presented an overwhelming candidate through the functional internal selection process among the Remo contestants in their bid to shift power to Remo division and wrestle power from the incumbent government of AD.
In every election, we saw the party leadership playing their assigned roles to build consensus and ensuring cohesion in the party towards electoral success. For the avoidance of doubts, all the past and incumbent governors of Ogun State were products of party leadership consensus arrangements and leadership’s caucus endorsement. For instance, Bisi Onabanjo was endorsed by Awo before the Electoral College stories. It was Awo’s personal intervention that pulled the Egbado bloc votes in favour of Chief Bisi Onabanjo’s emergence during the second ballot. Osoba was produced from Ijebu Igbo and Ayepe leadership caucus of Afenifere controlled SDP and AD parties respectively in 1993 and 1999, Otunba Gbenga Daniel was endorsed from the Villa when the sitting President was the biding authority for Ogun PDP party nomination. In 2011, SIA was also endorsed by Bourdillon oligarchy and subsequently at the ACN leadership caucus meeting at Ibadan. The same party leadership from Abuja and Bourdillon produced Prince Dapo Abiodun in 2019.
In 2003, PDP decided to retain the governorship position in Ogun East despite the fact that JMK contested and lost in 1999. In 2007, the same party announced that the position of the governor had been zoned to Ogun East to allow 2nd term automatic ticket for OGD. This was the reason SIA left the PDP to contest in ANPP in 2003 when it became obvious to him that the Party leadership was not prepared to let the Governorship go out of Ogun East . It is, therefore, a common knowledge that all the governors we have so far produced were all products of political consensus of the party leadership through party cohesion and not by consensus arrangement of a particular district. All the authorities so far described played decisive roles, and they remain the ad hoc authorities in selection and enthronement of Governors of the State to date
The storytellers often refer to 2011 election as the best opportune time for Ogun West to have produced her first governor for the state. This reference in the theatrical episode was been made without due consideration of the political circumstances in the state between 2009 and 2011 and the fact that the ruling People’s Democratic Party was then a caricature of its past glories in the State. If we are prepared to tell the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly, then we would assert the fact that PDP, the ruling party since 2009 became so divided and lost its electoral value before the general election. Unfortunately, Ogun west ticket was solely produced in that same party and was dead on arrival due to multi facial reasons. Significantly, the outcomes of party primaries determine to a large extent the healthiness of the parties. Despite contrasting and unfair reportage, we shouldn’t shrink from honestly facing the facts that internal cohesion and total well being of the party after the primary elections play major roles in the public perception and acceptance of the candidates among other factors. These were conspicuously missing in 2011 election lost by PDP.
You will recollect in 2009, that immediately OGD gave the impression that he was going to favour Ogun West in his political transition programme, things fell apart in the hitherto strong and united party and till date the centre is yet to hold in that party 15 years after. One is surprised that people expected the 2011 PDP to win the election with all the facts on the table about the level of disunity and internal warfare among its real power brokers and political juggernauts. I don’t know how the story tellers will forget so soon that the people of Ogun State voted for change in place of Continuity and how anyone with good and accurate sense of judgment will conclude that it was basically GNI and Olurin’s feuds that single handedly made Ogun west lost the election without reflecting on what created the impasse and the roll call of the big elephants at the war front mainly from Ogun Central and Ogun East
People argued that Olurin and Isiaka should have stepped down for each other, again they made their narrations without looking at the remote causes that promoted the immediate cause of the event: an indication in Yoruba parlance that people were merely looking at the veil without seeing the real masquerade. The people making that claim could have as well stated that Obasanjo or Daniel should have conceded to each other the right of who picks the successor to the office. It was clear with the historical accounts of the raging war then that the electoral war which consumed our political agenda was not limited to the Senatorial district’s final defeat; it also marked the irredeemable collapse of the hitherto great party in the State till date. That was the same election Iyabo Obasanjo lost to return to the Senate in the Central, when a sitting Speaker of the House of Reps, Rt Hon. Dimeji Bankole could not win his Federal constituency, the election where the combination of Ladi Adebutu and OGD could not deliver the Remo federal constituency. These storytellers never saw any fact in all these. The fact is if all these aspirants who also ran the election in the same party had won in their respective constituencies, Ogun West would have won convincingly. The fact we need to note considerably is that it takes a strong and united party feeding an overwhelmingly popular candidate little efforts to win an election. It is also instructive that no matter the investment of money and efforts, a party at war with its members can never be victorious in general elections.
Speaking with full knowledge of the facts, if we are talking of Governorship elections in 2003 and 2011, it should be rightly reported that in those years, power of incumbency failed woefully, godfatherism met brick wall, money was not the major determining factor, party cohesion played a leading role, candidates acceptance at the grassroots was significant to the success, in-fighting among major aspirants in the ruling party was very helpful to the winner and the fact that the people made up their minds months before the election. In 2015, hatred for particular godfather assisted the public opinion concerning their choice of the candidates. A strong candidate in a united and well coordinated party won the elections in those two election years. We should also remember that in 2015, the electorates voted for president in PDP and rejected candidates of the National Assembly of the ruling party in the same election, including Governorship in the subsequent elections. People made noise, but winners emerged. This will give us the insight that too many factors, numerous to mention, were at play in all the elections that had produced governors for the state.
We can not but have to express the sense and the need to accept from the basic principles and conceptual theories of historiography that there is no mono-causal event in history. It, therefore, means that historical accounts of any event in history can only be well accounted for by examining both the remote and immediate causes. The story tellers of Ogun west’s various attempts at the State Governorship race have this as their major shortcoming in their historical analysis. Hence, there are several untold stories to balance their vague and subjective narratives.
Throughout Ogun state history of political transitions, it was evident that all the election victories were achieved by strong and healthy parties. As structural from available historical accounts, the UPN that elected Onabanjo in 1979 and 1983, SDP that elected Osoba in 1993, the AD that elected Osoba in 1999, the PDP that elected OGD in 20003/2007 and ACN that elected Amosun in 2011 and APC that returned Amosun for second term in 2015 were all strong, united, virile and well positioned political platforms that could never be compared to the 2011 and 2015 PDP , PPN, APM and ADC platforms that failed Ogun west at previous Governorship elections. It was only in 2019 that APC performed the magic of electing Prince Dapo Abiodun in a war torn APC Party due to a lot of influence from the central government and consortium of political big wigs in the state. In that election, SIA, the incumbent Governor then presented the same scenario of 2011 by moving his aggrieved loyalists to a new party which resulted into victory for APC’s candidate from Ogun East ditto in 2023 when SIA moved his loyalist to support Biyi Otegbeye in ADC.
Viewed in these historical lights, it is only when Ogun west candidates are on the field that we begin to hear talks of lack of Unity in Ogun west as if it’s a problem only restricted to Ogun west. How true that is it that it was Egba unity that produced Osoba and Amosun as Governors of the State. Is there any iota of fact that it was Ijebu / Remo Unity that brought OGD and Prince Dapo Abiodun to power. We understand how the yam peeled in those critical times when the decisions were reached behind closed doors before the party formalities at the full glare of the cameras. If the Political leaders from the Central did not produce Osoba against Okurounmu and the Ijebu leaders were not left to decide OGD among the 8 contestants from Remo then why should anybody be saddling the people of Ogun west with the burden to go and produce a consensus candidate when obviously that had not been the trend of past events among contestants from other districts.
In all these, what the storytellers had failed to rightly inform their reading audience that for good reasons, the electorates votes are counted on the basis of political platform across the state to produce the winner and that It is the responsibility of the people of Ogun State people and the political parties to elect an Ogun west Governor and not the function of the Senatorial district.
The people of Ogun State need to understand the precarious situation the Ogun west political agenda had been subjected to in all the previous elections as the reasons the district had suffered electoral loses in their bid to produce the Governor of the State in all the previous attempts. Most of the problems were created by the incumbent Governors through their highhandedness in managing the political affairs of the state, collapse of state infrastructures, and dictatorial tendencies in picking their successors
By now, the electoral war has lasted more than four decades, despite the best efforts and gallantry fighting by our political candidates and their supporters, the diligence and assiduity of some of our political leaders, the narratives, has not changed. The Senatorial district was incapacitated beyond self redemption through many events that took place in their affiliated parties and patronage of political leaders who allowed their political differences to affect the agenda of the Ogun west people. If we studied the dynamics of those elections as mentioned earlier, it was obvious that the victorious parties all the time diligently put their own houses in proper order. The parties did not at any of those periods introduce special qualifications for the contestants and never asked the affected Senatorial district to go and produce a consensus candidate. They always look inward to present well qualified, strong and sellable candidates that have the credentials to win election unlike what we have been having each time the Egbado and Ogun West district were in the contest: weak parties, disunited leadership caucus, and personal disqualifications templates that affect the chances of the aspirants and the candidate from the West district. Even when we produced consensus candidates in 2015, the internal problems in the PDP platform and the conspiracies of some leaders of the state made us lose the election to the incumbent second term agenda
It is after all these internal rife in the parties and damages that the people of the state still expect us to queue behind a consensus candidate forgetting that the people of Ogun west are also human beings not separated from the politics of the state. They have forgotten that Ogun West people, including the aspirants, are part of the political parties that are engulfed in crisis. They have forgotten that politics of succession of the incumbent had been a factor in the unity of the people of the region through unhealthy rivalries and alleged unpopular imposition by the incumbent Governor by aggrieved party leaders.
In the grand sweep of history, it is so clear that for our people to speak in one voice, the political party leaders and the incumbent Governors of the state at different times have failed to create the enabling environment for smooth free transitions. They failed in all the elections to resolve the leadership tussle in their camps, provide a level playing grounds for the aspirants and let the party members and leaders choose a candidate they have absolute trust and confidence in from the zone. We have all seen that the other Senatorial districts that had been favoured to win in the past got the job done in UPN, SDP, AD,PDP, and ACN, and APC which were all strong political parties without leadership crisis at the time they presented Onabanjo , Osoba, Daniel and Amosun . Such being the cases, once the party leadership issues are fixed, the party’s choice of candidate will be fixed without rancour and distrust.
These had been the conspiracy stories usually behind the political marginalisation of Ogun West, which has continued unabatedly. What is morally justifiable and fair regardless of the excuses in the political transition programmes is the collective wisdom of the two Senatorial districts to agreeing to zone the Governorship to Ogun west in order to ensure that the long history of deprivation and sectional political imbalance will be put to a halt once and for all. It is the responsibility of the people of Ogun State and the political leaders to ensure that there is political equilibrium in Ogun State.
***Ajiroba Dapo Oke is from Ilaro ward 1, Yewa South Local government Area, Ogun State.
