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The Imperative of Complementary Votes Multiplier For Tinubu In Ogun State

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Tayo Oyekanmi.


2027 race is here even when the electioneering process is more than a year away officially. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has option of first refusal for the ticket of his party (APC)but he won’t refuse. Opposition elements are already on the prowl. Even before the adoption of ADC as the coalition platform by veteran hell raisers and latter days political pontificators became public knowledge, the reactive and proactive measures within the house of APC shows that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has his ears fully on the ground. The President is not your run on the mill apolitical President. As the President recalibrates and gathers momentum, he will need complementary candidates for key elective positions across the country, including Ogun State. Given the state’s history of not allowing “third term” even by proxy, Governor Dapo Abiodun’s future plans are uncertain, but there’s no indication he has been caught in that web.

Ogun State is strategic to President Tinubu’s heart, evident in the number of Ministers allotted to the state and the launchpad of political statements and salvo during the 2023 electioneering process. The President can’t joke with his base, particularly in the South West and South generally. As such, complementary vote multipliers are necessary, and popular individuals who can complement the President’s efforts are in pole position to get the party’s nod.

In Ogun State, religion has never dictated political decisions, and it’s unlikely to be different in 2027. The state’s people rise beyond infantile and pedestrian thinking. Religious sloganeering has never influenced political decisions. Given this, the President is likely to support candidates based on their ability to complement his efforts, rather than religious or other considerations. Complementary vote multipliers are not just desirable but a must for the President’s success in Ogun State.
In the light of this, individual seeking for the Governorship seat of Ogun State comes 2027 must come to table with demonstrable capacity to deliver more votes to Asiwaju’s rather than to benefit from that name alone by playing a religion card. This is why the narratives been propounded by some political destitutes and renegades hoping to see Asiwaju sacrificing the most popular political face in Ogun State today is illogical and politically impossible.

Lay bare the criteria needed on the table in relation to potential candidates around Ogun State today. Some of these people have history of electoral debacle plaguing them. Some are light weight who like to punch above their weight. Some have never contested beyond federal constituency. For others, their electoral value are not beyond a local government. For others, delivering their Units, Wards and Local Government have always been an uphill task at every election. Some are political leaders on paper and noise makers on Media platforms. We have others who are political greenhorns mouthing to be Governorship potentials. They’ve never been to the battle field beyond the boardroom. The President needs not employ the services of search party just as he needs no special security report to know who can complement his efforts not just politically in Ogun State but governmentally and institution building to fulfill his mandate and thereafter leave and enduring legacy after his Presidential tour of duty. Why the initial economic upheaval and dislocation affected the people more is that some of our Governors are not on the same page with the president on vision and mission to set Nigeria on a different pedestal. There’s no shared vision. That’s where the issue of like-mind complementary governorship candidates comes in. I will get to Shared vision of Mr President and Sen Solomon Olamilekan Adeola (Yayi) in a moment. But presently, no matter the criteria adopted, Sen Solomon Olamilekan Adeola (Yayi) will always come on top of the rating. This man has history of of 100 percent election success rate. He has been to the polls 6 times and has won all. That’s a record that’s unbeatable by any competing interest in Ogun State today. Sen Yayi’s mileage is phenomenon. He has become a political titan in Ogun State. Interestingly, Yayi has a very intertwined relationship with the President from his days in Lagos polity.

A bit of historical recollection will do. When Yayi was in the Lagos House of Assembly in 2003, Asiwaju was doing his second term. His efforts in putting in place institutional structure and legislative backing that ensure enduring financial recalibration that have seen quantum leap of Internally Generated Revenue is on record. The relationship has since grown in leaps and bounds to the admiration of many but it didn’t happens by chance. It’s a relationship build on shared vision, commitment, conviction and overriding good for all. In the period leading to 2015 election, Yayi was fighting frantically to pick up Senatorial ticket in Ogun West just as Asiwaju saw looming danger in Lagos West particularly Alimosho axis with the largest voters in the whole of Lagos. Like a good Political Commander that Asiwaju was and still is, he preempted what lies ahead. The realization of the then Akinwunmi Ambode governorship project was about to be jeopardized. Things weren’t looking good going by internal and external schisms. The old warhorse and outgoing Senator, Ganiyu Olarenwaju Solomon wasn’t in the reckoning to return to Senate. He earlier staked his risk for the Governorship and lost out to candidate Akinwunmi Ambode. Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, the political chess master sat down, joggle his cards and came back with a masterstroke. One of his trusted lieutenants has to be prevailed upon to put on hold his journey back home to Ogun State. Things needed to be put in shape in Lagos West. The then sitting Rep representing Alimosho Federal Constituency was counseled to mount the rostrum and take up the challenge of Lagos West Senatorial ticket. The lot fell on Yayi as that rightful man. Yayi didn’t disappoint he proved to everyone that he’s called YAYI for a reason. He ran a highly penetrating campaign and got the job done, not just emerged as the Senator for the first time but returned resounding votes and success for Akinwunmi Ambode to emerge as a Governor. Yayi has since grown exponentially and earned the trust of his number 1 undisputed leader; President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

In the 2023 Presidential Primary at the Eagle Square in Abuja but for Sen Yayi, the totality of Ogun Delegates could have voted elsewhere than for Asiwaju but Yayi prevented that shellacking. Showing Asiwaju that he has the ears of his people not to lead them astray. The President saw that and dutifully appreciated commitment and dedication to a worthy course. Gifting Ogun West Ministerial nomination is an offshoot of that. Since then, Yayi has grown phenomenally in Ogun politics on account of impactful representation that isn’t limited to his Senatorial Districts.. Today, no political actor particularly among those eyeing Oke imosan can rival Yayi either in terms of visibility, acceptability or even name recognition alone. Yayi is not just a name any longer in Ogun State, he’s a movement that’s unstoppable. He is currently the doyen of Ogun political turf. He’s a shining light. He’s politically sanguine, affectionately affable with the generality of the people across the State. This description is not an hyperbole. It’s the straightforward truth. Yayi is not your regular average politician that is associated with lies and propaganda to gain popularity and acceptably. Knowing that propaganda comes with expiry date. The craving for Yayi across the State lend credence to his rating and value across the border of his Senatorial District. Sen Yayi is a blaze of glory that will add more glorious votes to Asiwaju with him as the Governorship candidate because he is a charismatic mobilizer that is highly needed at a time like this. Occasion like this are not meant for everyday politically interested individuals.

Now that President is going for a revalidation electoral battle in 2027, some political parasites and reductionists who are afraid of Senator Yayi shadow are now allover the place with a whole lot of distortions. These politically vested individuals are been delusional to imagine that, Yayi the man to beat no matter what angle you look at will be prevail upon by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to return to Senate as part of his trusted allies in the Senate to pave way for an unknown person to emerge as Governor in Ogun State. This line of thinking is highly simplistic and parasitic in nature and reasoning. President Bola Tinubu is much more deeper and politically sophisticated than that. He knows his team and what they comes to the table with. He knows those who have been with him in the days of little beginnings. He knows those who risked and still risking it all for him. He knows those who comes to the table with just eyes service and for the sake of the position they are craving for. He knows those who were forced to align but for circumstances sake. The president wants to win election conveniently and not a face saving victory. He knows those who can guarantee more votes at the polls among his lieutenants effortlessly. With the level of political fireworks and oppositional engagement ahead, the President don’t just need anyone as flag bearer. He needs a multiplayer and vote harvesters. Political warfare like the 2027 race will always obey the law of strategic reality. Yayi on the Governorship ballot is a strategic necessity because of the attendant votes that will follow across the State. That’s where Yayi is needed and good enough, he’s handy . A man with surging political clout. With Sen Yayi as Ogun Governorship Candidate of APC, his political “cells” will automatically be activated. His reach and network will go all out to work assiduously across the State to deliver for the president and all other candidates of the party knowing the ripple and associated bandwagon effect of that on the psyche of the people.

Any thinking to compel Yayi to vie for something else other than the Governorship will not only deprive the people of Ogun West their well deserved agitation. Because he’s the most popular and acceptable. It will also be very disadvantageous to Asiwaju’s numbers at the poll. Yayi can’t be restricted to a section of the State when the whole state is waiting with bated breath for Yayi’s mounting the saddle at Abeokuta. Asiwaju surely knows his people. He knows his team. He knows those who are core professionals who have never been tested politically or electorally. 2027 is not a time for trial and error sampling. There’s no podium appearance for runner’s up in Presidential, Governorship and any election for that matter.

Oyekanmi, a former Leader of Ipokia Legislative Council wrote from Ifonyintedo, Ipokia Local Government Area of Ogun State.

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