Ogun 2023: The Odds Against Governor Dapo Abiodun
Fear and Anxiety:
As the nation moves into a frenzy political atmosphere in last quarter of 2022 preparatory toward the general elections in 2023, anxiety, fears and re-alignments are already high among the political populace in Nigeria. One of the States in Nigeria that may likely witness political earthquake arising from realignments of political tendencies is Ogun State.
Progressives and Conservatives in Ogun State:
Ogun State has been ruled at least in the last ten years by the progressives from 2011 to date, the period of Senator Ibikunle Amosun and the current governor Mr Dapo Abiodun. It is obvious that the progressives may still hold the ace in Ogun State in 2023 because the major opposition party, PDP, is disorganized and has been completely stifled and engulfed in intractable crisis which has remained insurmountable till date. Three contenders to the governorship seat are claiming the ownership of the ticket. They are Ladi Adebutu, Jimmy Lawal and Segun Sowunmi. The party seems to be in distress arising from the political ailment that has plagued it since its unceremonious defeat in 2011. Surprisingly, another opposition party has risen from the ashes of progressives and is putting up a good fight to unseat the current government of APC in Ogun State. That party is African Democratic Congress, ADC.
It would have been an easy coaster ride for APC led government in Ogun State to win the seat back to back in 2023 but that permutations and believe have melted away like wax placed in a hot sun. Indeed, the odds are huge against the Iperu born governor.
Abiodun hands tied by Yayi and Egbetokun;
Dapo Abiodun a once good friend of the immediate past governor of Ogun State in 2018 had thrown off the political apple cart of the progressives in Ogun State by courting the support of Lagos political General Bola Tinubu to upstage Hon. Adekunle Akinlade, popularly called Triple A, the then anointed candidate of Senator Ibikunle Amosun in the run up to Ogun 2019. Ever since that time,Dapo Abiodun has not been able to carve a political niche for himself. He seems to be tied to the political ascendancy of Lagos West Senator Solomon Adeola Olamilekan and a Special Adviser Tunji Egbetokun. Abiodun is a governor with no political structure of his own
Despite the internal and external gang up against Senator Ibikunle Amosun as governor in 2019, his anointed candidate Hon. Adekunle Akinlade only lost marginally by about 19,000 votes despite the fact that the political platform he used was then two months old to the 2019 elections. It was an unprecedented success even in controversial defeat compared to the colossal loss suffered by Otunba Gbenga Daniel when he supported his anointed candidate Mr Gboyega Isiaka of PPN in the 2011 governorship election in Ogun State.
Factors against Abiodun re-election bid:
Several factors will count against the selection and re-election of Mr Dapo Abiodun in 2023. Some of the factors are poor performance, reduce support base, weakening of his political father, re-alignment of major ethnic groups, influence of the Abuja caucus, betrayals by dubious loyalists. Added to these are Ladi Adebutu and Amosun factors.
It is a common knowledge that the government of Gov. Dapo Abiodun has performed abysmally below expectation, Abiodun has not been able to sustain the monthly IGR profile of N7billion it inherited from the immediate past administration. Ogun IGR has dropped to about N4b naira per month. This is the reason the State has not been able to meet its several financial obligations especially in terms of staff emoluments and welfare and infrastructure development. While Amosun did not owe Ogun workers any deduction as at May 2019, Abiodun is already owing his workers 23 months unpaid salary deductions out of the 39 months he had so far spent in Oke Mosan.
Labour force against Abiodun:
The labour force in Ogun State according to a credible source is preparing again for a showdown with the governor over what it termed “Abiodun Fake and Empty Promises”. Labour in Ogun State now perceived Gov. Abiodun as unreliable, undependable, untrustworthy and a serial liar. Dapo Abiodun at his inauguration in 2019 had promised to pay workers salary 100%. A promise he never kept despite his late father’s advice to make workers welfare his top priority. According to a reliable source the government of Mr Dapo Abiodun may have taken over N300 billion as loan in three years with scanty infrastructure to justify the bogus loan.
Another source revealed that most of the projects dubiously credited to Gov. Abiodun were paid for by the immediate past government of Ogun State.
Abiodun weak political base:
Mr Dapo Abodun political support base is getting reduced everyday. According to an APC Chieftain from Ota Chief Sunmonu Balogun ‘before 2019 Mr Dapo Abiodun has neither political base nor structure in Ogun State, he was a political appendage of Senator Ibikunle Amosun’. Our investigation showed that most of the politicians who gravitated toward Dapo Abiodun were Amosun men and with another major block from Osoba group. Unfortunately, Osoba men and women are completely unhappy with Dapo Abiodun style of governance. In the last one year Osoba has played host to protests from his supporters lamenting the poor treatment melted on them by Dapo Abiodun. The climax was the petition written by Mr Segun Adesegun, a former Deputy Governor of Ogun State and the Campaign Head of Dapo Abiodun in the 2019 election. Adesegun had complained that he was treated unfairly in his Ijebu North local government area during the last APC ward congress election in Ogun State. This series of events have thrown into the strong doubt the commitment of the Osoba group to the re-rlection of Dapo Abiodun.
In the same vein,many of the Amosun prodigal sons who left Amosun have retraced their steps back home to the ‘white house’, the official residence of Amosun in Ibara, Ogun State.
According to an insider’s source the once rosy relationship between Mr Dapo Abiodun and his Remo brother Gbenga Daniel may not be rosy after all !
Abiodun, Osoba and Tinubu factor:
Mr Dapo Abiodun emergence and victory in 2019 was due largely to the support from the Lagos based APC National Leader, Bola Tinubu who was able to procure the local support of Olusegun Osoba, an Egba based APC Leader. Unfortunately for Dapo Abiodun, these support platforms in Ogun State are now very weak and frail hence may not be reliable for him again. Segun Osoba believed Dapo Abiodun has not measured up to expected standard and Tinubu may no longer be convinced about Abiodun future political pursuits due to Dapo Abiodun weak support for his presidential aspiration. Tinubu according to some of his aides is already mending fences with his supposed enemies and may sacrifice anyone for his own presidential interest.
Yewa-Awori-Ijebu factor:
Ethnic coloration to Ogun 2023 is becoming clearer everyday. Ijebu and Yewa people may have realized now that they made wrong political calculations in the build up to 2019 elections by throwing their weight behind a Remo man against their own sons. The two ethnic groups seemed to have lost out in the present government. Ogun West has witnessed little or no infrastructural development as projected. A realignment of Ijebu- Awori- Yewa may spring up that will melt the political confidence of Abiodun in the build to 2023 elections.
Abiodun and Betryals:
A major odd against Abiodun 2023 ambition is the upcoming season of betrayals by Abiodun ‘dubious’ loyalists. According to a Remo based political leader Chief Jamiu Sonibare ‘70% of those who are currently with Gov. Abiodun were once with former governor Amosun and who despite serving him for eight years betrayed him. These crass political opportunists will soon betray Dapo Abiodun at the slightest opportunity’. Sonibare further said ‘The friends that Abiodun thought he has are indeed his enemies. Sooner than later Gov. Abiodun will soon realize that his followers have reduced in numbers and strengths!’
The 2023 Presidential election and the interest of Abuja caucus is also a major factor. Political observers know that the pendulum in most States of the country including Ogun State will swing in the direction of allies of the caucus. Unfortunately, Dapo Abiodun does not have the ears of this powerful political bloc, to make matters worst for him, he is not also fancied in the Bourdilion caucus which is already politically overwhelmed and asphyxiated by the presidency project of Tinubu. Gov. Dapo Abiodun seems to be in the wrong camp this time around.
Abiodun albatross:
The albatross of Gov. Dapo Abiodun is the immediate past Governor of Ogun State Senator Ibikunle Amosun. Both Abiodun and Amosun were once close friends before October 2018 when Abiodun decided to go against the political interests of his friend Amosun. Since then, the political stratophere in Ogun State has not remained the same. Amosun even three years after exiting the government still wield enormous political powers. The immediate past governor of Ogun State has a cult-like followers and never in the history of Ogun State has any past governor held the state firmly under his arm pit like Amosun even after leaving seat of power. He is indeed a seven star political general with uncommon political sagacity. To many keen political observers in Ogun State, it will be difficult to dislodge Amosun politically especially in his Egba base. Ironically too, Amosun has trusted loyalists in Ijebu, Remo, Awori and Yewa lands. Number for number, no politician in Ogun State has more followers than Amosun. With his strength, it will therefore be an herculean task for Dapo Abiodun to defeat Ibikunle Amosun and his men in any fair contest in 2023 elections in Ogun State.
Indeed Gov. Dapo Abiodun must be having sleepless nights about the political uphill task ahead of him in his bid to return to Oke-Mosan in 2023. The factors that helped to push him to the seat of powers in 2019 seem to be non- existent now. Indeed, It will be easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for Dapo Abiodun to win re-election in Ogun State in 2023. The odds are squarely against him.
Will Gov. Dapo Abiodun prove bookmakers wrong like he did in 2018 and will he be twice lucky?
Time will tell.
Mr. John Adeoye
Public Affairs Analyst
