OGUN 2015: IN SEARCH OF PDP WINNING FORMULA.

 

By Tunde Olusegun

As the 2015 general elections draw near, political atmosphere in Ogun State has become  saturated with activities which suggest that actors are poised to outwit each other. Events of the past weeks have shown that it is going to be a two-horse race battle between the All Progressives Congress,  APC and the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.

The ruling APC appears to have set the stage for an interesting contest   with the choice of the incumbent Governor Ibikunle Amosun as the man to fly it’s flag in the gubernatorial election.  The governor has been able to suppress all internal opposition to emerge the candidate of the party.

The crisis that rocked the party which pitched the former Governor and the leader of the party, Chief Olusegun Osoba, against Amosun remains unresolved. The faction led by Osoba has gone ahead to to join other forces forming a new party called Social Democratic Party (SDP). Some of the people who fell out of favour with Amosun and who didn’t follow Osoba to SDP have joined PDP.

The PDP on its part has got its ranks and files more enriched with the coming on board of Otunba Gbenga Daniel led faction of Labour Party. But the challenge the PDP will be  facing is the choice of its gubernatorial candidate. The party needs a winning formula and a personality that can lead her to victory at the polls.

There is no doubt that PDP as it is today parades eminent and qualified  personalities who can take the State to a higher status. These personalities include  Alhaji Rafiu Ogunleye, Sarafa Tunji Ishola, Hon Jelili Kayode Amusan, Hon Dimeji Bankole, Gboyega Nasir Isiaka, Prince Yanju Lipede,  Engr . Tony Ojesina, Hon Abiodun Isiaq Akinlade and Omoba Segun Adewale. These people have signified their intention to fly the party’s flag in the 2015‎ gubernatorial election.

All these aforementioned aspirants have their political assets and liabilities.  Hon. Amusan was a  two-term member of House of Representatives, he lost out in the high wired political chess game of 2011 general elections. He is from Ogun Central, a senatorial district that the present governor hails from. If the PDP settles for Amusan, then Governor Amosun looks good to return to Oke Mosan Government House. This is because the governor will likely poll more than 60 percent of the expected votes from the area considering the level of ‘subjective’ performance of  the governor in this zone. He will then go on to win, may be slightly in the other two senatorial districts.

The PDP will automatically face the same scenario if not worse if Hon Dimeji Bankole fly the party’s flag, because he is also from Ogun Central. Bankole lost out at the poll in his bid to return to the House of Representatives as a Sitting Speaker of the House in 2011. He lost to a relatively unknown man in a Federal constituency which  is just one Local Government(Abeokuta South). If Bankole lost as a Sitting Speaker with all the apparatus of the office around him in 2011, then the question is, has any magic wand turned around his political trajectory between then and now? The truth is, Bankole’s popularity and political acceptance might have even dropped drastically. This is because immediately after he lost the election, he abandoned the party and all the people who were always with him. He went on political siberia or better still sabbatical which might have affected his political structure if he had any, in no small measure before his return. He was also distracted by the EFCC case. Even though discharged and acquitted by the court for lack of concrete evidence against him for the allegations of fraud, it remains to be seen how that has helped him in the court of the people .

Bankole as a flag bearer will automatically be a disaster in waiting for PDP as Amosun will just be on a roller coaster to victory as no amount of image laundry mechanism can swing the victory for PDP.

Sarafa Tunji Ishola was a  former minister of the Federal Republic, he was also, during Otunba Gbenga Daniel’s first term, the Secretary to the State Government. He hails from Ogun Central, a senatorial district just as Amusan and Dimeji. Should the PDP settle for Sarafa, then Governor Amosun looks good to return to Oke Mosan Government House.

As for Alhaji Rafiu Ogunleye, age is not on his side any longer. At over 74 years of age, baba might be too old for the job at hand. Ogun state is a highly sophisticated State that requires a man full of vigour and energy to confront  Amosun in the first instance. More so Baba’s political structure outside Ogun East, his base, is near zero. If the party settles for Baba Ogunleye,  the tendency is that both PDP and APC will split Ogun East votes into two at best for the PDP, while APC will have a resounding victory in Ogun Central. APC will also carry the day in Ogun West because all APC needs  do is for Governor Amosun  to assure the people of Ogun West of his support come 2019 and that would do the magic of bulk votes for APC.

That is where Ogun West factor comes to play. For now Omoba Segun Adewale, Gboyega Isiaka and Hon Akinlade are the three aspirants from Ogun West on the platform of PDP. Even though Gboyega Isiaka joined the party late, Its highly expedient, important and strategic for the PDP to settle for her candidate from Ogun West because that would guarantee bulk votes since the area has not been able to produce the Governor of the state since it’s creation 38 years ago . That will also assuage the feeling of being classified as a second class citizen in their own state. There is high tendency that the people of the zone will support a good candidate from the area. Omoba Segun Adewale might be a good personality but he has not been tested politically and electoral wise. The PDP cannot afford to gamble with the political tidal wave going on in the South west. It could be disastrous at the end of the day. For now he is a  green horn politically and this is not the right time for ‘test running’ if the party is really desirous of winning the governorship. The Ogun West formula for PDP can only result to electoral victory when complimented with a strong personality with good prospect and electoral asset that commands a large chunk of the voters’ respect.

 Gboyega Isiaka, though contested the last gubernatorial election on the platform of  a relatively unknown party, PPN, has not won any election before now. Fielding him will be a big gamble against an incumbent. Apart from this, the government of Ibikunle Amosun and the APC have accused the immediate past government of Otunba Gbenga Daniel, OGD, of running the state aground. Since Isiaka was part and parcel of OGD’s administration, having served and the Group Managing Director of Gateway Holdings, the investment arm of Ogun State for more than six years, he will have a great task of separating himself from these allegations by Amosun, even though the cases are still in courts. Isiaka will be distracted with defending himself on his roles in the OGD administration instead of facing the task of campaigning and telling the electorates how he would  do things differently. That is why it will be suicidal for the PDP to make him the flag bearer.

This is where Hon Akinlade comes handy. He is not a political neophyte. Hon Akinlade has a winning mentality and victorious antecedents.; having been to the polls on three different occasions and winning all. Among all the aspirants on the platform of the PDP, he appears to be the best prepared with his “New Pact” Policy thrust flying around.

Hon Akinlade’s abilities with respect to wining elections in the past are potent, aggressive and uncommon.  To defeat an incumbent in Amosun’s mould, PDP needs a man like Akinlade whose past anticedent stands him higher than all the aspirants. His  deeds, relentless and fierce struggle to put his constituency nay Ogun State on a straight and solid footing are all that are needed for the next man to occupy the seat in Oke Mosan.  Akinlade is the most outstanding of all the aspirants due to  his impressive democratic credentials, outstanding vision and his consistency which  have been demonstrated overtime. His choice will be a  beacon of hope for the youths. He has remained constant like the Northern Stars, particularly among his cult like followers across the state. He also understands the psyche of Governor Amosun better having contested the primaries of the defunct  ACN against him in 2011.

However, the only thing that can work against Akinlade in PDP and which can affect him with respect to getting the ticket is his lack of godfather. While Dimeji Bankole  has his father, Alani Bankole as his own godfather, Gboyega Isiaka has Otunba Gbenga Daniel, Akinlade doesn’t have any godfather and records show that he has always relied on the people in the three times he had contested and won the House of Representatives seats.

 Akinlade flying the flag of PDP with a running mate from Ogun East is the most formidable team that can dislodge Amosun from government house. With his present popularity rating , Akinlade will deliver up to 70 percent votes from Ogun West for the PDP. Even in Abeokuta North Local Government , in the Senatorial district of Amosun, Akinlade enjoins a lot of supports because this Local Government is predominantly occupied by Yewa people, who are Akinlade’s kinsmen. A people that haven’t had the opportunity to govern the State in its 38years of existence.   If all the political bigwigs in Ogun PDP like Prince Buruuji Kasamu, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, Matins Kuye, Lekan Mustapha and the rest can work together and Akinlade as the candidate being the primus inter pares among all the aspirants, then Governor Amosun can begin to prepare his handover note without delay. This is my candid observation, analysis and winning formula for the PDP in Ogun State!

Olusegun writes from Ota, Ogun State