Bayelsa Polls fell below expectation, can’t pass credibility test – TMG
Adetokunbo Fakeye
The Transition Monitoring Group on Tuesday expressed concern over the conduct of the Bayelsa State governorship election, saying it fell below expectation and cannot pass credibility test.
The organisation which deployed 300 observers said security agencies disappointed Nigerians because they refused to act, despite earlier warnings three months before the governorship elections in Kogi and Bayelsa States regarding flash points.
This was the stand of the Chairman of TMG, Mr. Ibrahim Zikirulkahi, in a preliminary statement read to journalists on Tuesday evening in Abuja.
Full details below…
Preliminary Statement on the Gubernatorial Election in Bayelsa State, Tuesday December 08, 2015 – Sokoto Hall,Transcorp Hilton Hotel, Abuja
Presented by Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullah, Chairman, TMG
Ladies and Gentlemen, the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) welcomes you all to the public release of its preliminary statement on the conduct of the 2015 Bayelsa Gubernatorial Election.
Introduction
On Saturday December 5, 2015, a total of 300 carefully selected, trained and accredited stationary citizen observers were deployed by TMG to observe the 2015 Bayelsa Gubernatorial Election in arandomly selected representative sample of 300 polling units spread across every senatorial district and all eight of the local government areas (LGAs). Thus, TMG observers were in every corner of the state, from the capitalof Yenagoa, to Sagbama town, to the most remote riverine areas in Brass and Southern Ijaw.
As communicated to the nation and people of Bayelsa on Thursday December 3, 2015 in the pre-election statement, TMG employed the Quick Count methodology to observe theBayelsaGubernatorial Elections. The Quick Countis an advanced and scientific election observation methodology. It utilizes well-established statistical principles and sophisticated information technologies to provide timely and accurate information on the conduct of voting and counting process throughout Election Day. It is the only election observation methodology that independently verifies official results as announced by national election management bodies such as INEC.
About Transition Monitoring Group (TMG)
Permit me, Ladies and Gentlemen, to say a few words about TMG and election observation activities in Nigeria. TMG is Nigeria’s premier citizen observer group. TMG observed the transition from military to democratic rule and has since observed all subsequent national elections. TMG is a coalition of over 400 civil society organizations based in all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). TMG is driven by data, for all Nigerians, but beholden to none.
General Context
Ladies and Gentlemen, TMG recognises that Bayelsa state, as an estuary where many communities cannot be accessed by road, presents a challenging terrain to organise an election. These inherent challenges were further compounded on December 5 by the behaviour ofpolitical parties whoinstrumentalised militants to do their bidding. This has resulted in violence, harassment and intimidation, in particular in Ekeremor, Brass and Nembe on Saturday and inSouthern Ijaw on Saturday and Sunday. The media has reported the killing of at least five citizens and one police officer. The scenes of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) staff being held hostage are unbefitting for a democracy. Moreover, the fierce political competition and inadequate security deployment to the riverineareas made for an extremely challenging and tense election environment. TMG expresses concerns that, despite the widely observed presence of security agents at the polling units by its observers, these agents were not properlyinstructed on how to handle the volatile election environment.
On December 7, 2015 INEC declared the election in Bayelsa inconclusive after the Commission was unable to announce results for Southern Ijaw local government area.
Pre-Election
Elections are more than just Election Day, and TMG has been observing the entire process for the Bayelsa Gubernatorial Election. TMG’s main findings related to the pre-election period include:
1. That both leading political parties,the All Progressives Congress (APC)and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), acted contrary to the spirit of the YenagoaPeace Accord. Because all political parties in Nigeria continue to lack the skills and expertise to contest elections by the rules of the game, they fall back on familiar strategies of buying support, intimidation, harassment and rigging.Political parties in Nigeria are not speaking to votersand not even spending time to listen to voters about the issues that matter to them. Undemocratic behaviour by political parties and their elected representatives undermines public confidence in the electoral process. This deprivescitizens of the opportunity toexercise a free and democratic right to choose at the polls. For the elections to become credible,political parties must become democratic, transparent and accountable;
2. The permanent voters’ cards (PVC)collection and distribution process needs to be more transparent and accountable;
3. There were widespread allegations ofpoliticians buying up PVCs;
4. Early warning signs of violenceincluding arms build-up in identified areas – including Southern Ijaw and Ekeremor – seem not to have beenadequately addressed by the security agencies in the lead-up to the election;
5. A seeming lack of synergy between security agencies and INEC may have contributed to the late distribution of election materials tothe Registration Area Centres andsubsequently to the Polling Units on December 5, 2015.
Preliminary Findings on the Election Day Processes
On December 7, 2015 INEC declared the election in one of Bayelsa’s eight local government areas, Southern Ijaw, to be inconclusive. TMG observers deployed in Southern Ijaw during the election dates largely reported that polling units did not open for election. As a result, TMG will only present its observations from the seven local government areas where INEC has announced results. This is why TMG will not speak to the process in Southern Ijaw or present data from Southern Ijaw at this time.
The following findings are therefore based on reports received from 181 of TMG’s 230 citizen observers who were deployed outside of Southern Ijaw, (i.e. 79%), stationed at a representative random sample of polling units in these seven LGAs. It should be noted that TMG’s observers faced significant challenges deploying and observing throughout the entire day. Sixobservers located in Yenagoa, Brass, Nembe and Ekeremor reported that they were not permitted to observe. Other observers reported that elections did not take place in their assigned polling units or that they were unable to observe the entire process due to violence or ballot box snatching.Based on the complete reports from our citizen observers, which they sent in via coded text message using mobile phones, TMG finds that,while some elements of the Election Day process were adequate, there were serious shortcomingsincluding:
Setup of Polling Units
• Security agents were present in 96% of polling units where TMG observed.
• One hundred percent (100%) of polling units where TMG observed had card readers.
Accreditation of Voters
• Polling units across the stateopened for accreditation late. Accreditation started by 9 a.m. or earlier in 43% of polling units observed. Accreditation started more than an hour late in 55% of polling units observed, beginning between 9 a.m. and 1 p.m. Accreditation had not started by 1 p.m. in 2 % of polling units observed.
• In 74% of polling units, the card reader functioned without problems on Election Day. In 19% of polling units, the card reader experienced problems but the machine was either fixed or replaced. In 7% of polling units, the card reader experienced problems and was neither fixed nor replaced.
• Ninety-seven percent (97%) of poll officials in the polling units where TMG observed asked all voters to present their permanent voters’ card (PVC) before voting. In 93% of these polling units, poll officials checked the permanent voters’ card of every voter with the card reader before accrediting them to vote. However, in 42% of polling units observed, individuals were permitted to vote if the card reader could not read their PVCs. In 11% of polling units observed, 26 or more individuals were permitted to vote although the card reader could not read their PVCs.
• Eight percent (8%) of polling units observed experienced incidents of violence, harassment or intimidation during accreditation.
Voting Process
• Voting started without significant delays in 63% of polling units, beginning before 2 p.m. In 35% of polling units, voting began between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. and in 2% of polling units voting had not begun by 4:00 p.m.
• In 14% of polling units, the voting booth was set up in a way that did not enable voters to mark their ballots in secret.
• The ballot box was shown to be empty before being locked in 98% of polling units.
• In 90% of the polling units observed, no voters were permitted to vote if they did not have indelible ink on their left hand indicating that they had been accredited. In those polling units where voters were permitted to vote without indelible ink on their left hand, only a few individuals (in most polling units between 1 and 5 individuals) were so permitted.
• In 19% of polling units observed, 26 or more individuals were accredited to vote while voting was ongoing.
• Observers reported incidents of violence, harassment or intimidation during voting in 6% of the polling units they observed.
Counting Process
• In 13% of polling units observed, the poll officials did not count the number of unused gubernatorialballot papers, the number of counterfoils for used gubernatorialballot papers, and the number of spoilt gubernatorial ballot papers.
• In 37% of polling units observed, poll officials recounted the ballot papers. Polling agents for the All Progressives Congress requested that the ballot papers be recounted in 24% of polling units observed. Polling agents for the Peoples Democratic Party requested that the ballot papers be recounted in 23% of polling units observed.
• Observers reported incidents of violence, harassment or intimidation during counting in 8% of polling units observed.
Results Process
• In 21% of polling units observed, INEC officials reported that an anomaly existed for the results as tabulated at the polling unit.
• In 19% of polling units observed, INEC officials reported that the results tabulated at the polling unit were null and void. In accordance with INEC’s Approved Guidelines and Regulations for the Conduct of 2015 General Elections, results are declared null and void when an election is not held or cancelled or whereover-voting has taken place (sections 28 and 31).
• In 13% of polling units observed, the official results for the entire polling unit were not posted for the public to see.
Summary
Ladies and gentlemen, TMG highlights again with grave concern persistent challenges in the organisation of credible elections in Bayelsa state.In the seven LGAs where elections did hold on Saturday, December 5, 2015:
• Proper accreditation procedures were not followed in many polling units. TMG observers reported thatin 42% of polling units observed, individuals were permitted to vote if the card reader could not read their PVCs. In 11% of polling units observed, significant numbers of individuals – 26 or more – were permitted to vote although the card reader could not read their PVCs.
• In 19% of polling units observed, 26 or more individuals were accredited to vote while voting was ongoing. According to INEC’s Approved Guidelines and Regulations for the Conduct of 2015 General Elections, accreditation should be declared closed before voting commences (sections 14a and 16a).
• Abnormally high rates of results in polling units were declared null and void by poll officials. In 19% of polling units observed, INEC officials reported that the results tabulated at the polling unit were null and void. In accordance with INEC’s Approved Guidelines and Regulations for the Conduct of 2015 General Elections, results are declared null and void when an election is not held or cancelled or where over-voting has taken place (sections 28 and 31).
The above findings suggest that the gubernatorial election in Bayelsa was characterized by serious irregularities throughout the process, which call into question the credibility of the election. TMGcalls on INEC to adhere to its Approved Guidelines and Regulations for the Conduct of 2015 General Elections to ensure the credibility of the electoral process.
Furthermore, recognizing the challenges posed by the security and political environment in Bayelsa,the TMG Chair wishes to particularly thank the Quick Count observers who persevered in the conduct of their duties despite the difficulties faced.
TMG’s data will be available for all stakeholders and citizens to assess. As we continue to state, Quick Count is:
Driven by data,
Beholden to none,
For all Nigerians.
Thank you and God Bless the people of BayelsaState in particular and Nigeria in general.
Media Contact: Armsfree Ajanaku
Telephone: +234 8086985104
Email: media@tmgng.org
Appendix
The Quick Count Methodology
The Quick Count is an advanced and scientific election observation methodology that employs well established statistical principles and utilizes sophisticated information technologies. It provides the most timely and accurate information on the conduct of voting and counting. It is the only election observation methodology that independently verifies official results as announced by national election management bodies.
TMG Bayelsa State Election Quick Count
TMG conducted a Quick Count during the BayelsaState governorship Election held on Saturday,December 5, 2015. TMG deployed 300 carefully selected, trained and accredited stationary citizen observers to a representative random sample of 300 polling units out of the total of 1,804 in the 8Local Government Areas (LGAs). In addition to the stationary volunteers, TMG also had 14 mobile or roving supervisors who also observed the elections within the LGAs (see Appendix Table 1 for sample distribution).
Appendix Table 1: Comparison of Distribution of All Polling Units with TMG Quick Count Sampled Polling Unit
Senatorial Zone
Local Government Areas (LGA)
Polling
Units
Percentage of Polling Units
Sampled Polling Units
Percentage of Sampled Polling Unit
Central
Kolokuma/Opokuma
144
8.0%
24
8.0%
Central
Southern Ijaw
425
23.6%
70
23.6%
Central
Yenagoa
219
12.1%
36
12.0%
East
Brass
159
8.8%
27
9.0%
East
Nembe
202
11.2%
33
11.0%
East
Ogbia
259
14.4%
44
14.7%
West
Ekeremor
198
11.0%
33
11.0%
West
Sagbama
198
11.0%
33
11.0%
Grand Total
1,804
100%
300
100%
TMG volunteers for the Bayelsa State Governorship election were drawn from every corner of this State and include men and women, youth and elderly, with recourse to the secularity of the Nigerian State as enshrined in the 1999 Constitution. These volunteers observed the entire Election Day processes from setup of the polling units through to the announcement and posting of the official results. During this period, volunteers with the aid of mobile phones sent in real-time reports via coded text message to the TMG’s National Information Centre (NIC) located at theTop Rank Galaxy Hotel, Yenagoa.
TMG’s objective for undertaking the Quick Count exercise, ladies and gentlemen, was to scientifically and independently verify the accuracy of the Bayelsa Governorship election result as declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and to confirm whether the official results truly reflect the will of electorates in Bayelsa State.
