Ogun 2027: The Battle Before the Ballot and the Electability Question
By Kayode Oladele
The governorship race in Ogun State is gradually moving from whispers in private meetings to open political calculations, with 2027 now firmly in sight and the battle lines already taking shape across party structures, local government networks, and political alignments. While aspirants are still engaging in consultations and testing the waters, it is clear that the contest will not merely be about ambition; it will be a referendum on influence, grassroots reach, political engineering and the capacity to build a statewide coalition that cuts across Ogun West, Ogun Central, and Ogun East.
At the heart of the emerging contest is the long-standing agitation for power rotation. The argument that Ogun West deserves a fair shot at producing the next governor has become a recurring moral and political force, shaping conversations within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC)and beyond. The agitation has gained renewed intensity in recent times, not just because it appeals to equity and fairness, but because it speaks to the moral need for inclusion and a sense of belonging among Ogun West communities that feel historically and politically shortchanged.
However, as compelling as the fairness and equitable argument may be, the reality of Ogun politics remains that elections are not won by moral suasion alone. They are won by structures, mobilization capacity and a candidate’s ability to appear acceptable and electable beyond his immediate constituency. This is why the 2027 race is already becoming a test of who can translate the language of equity and fairness and the morality question into the mathematics of votes and the science of political organization.
Within the APC, the situation is particularly interesting because ruling parties naturally attract a crowd of aspirants- the good, the bad and the ugly. Many individuals will show interest, some will project strength and others will attempt to negotiate relevance through endorsements and strategic alignments. However, in the end, the ticket will most likely go to the contender who demonstrates the clearest combination of party loyalty, political infrastructure, acceptability among stakeholders and the ability to win the general election convincingly.
The APC is not only looking for a candidate who can emerge from a primary contest; it is looking for a flagbearer who can keep the party united, protect its dominance and neutralize opposition threats. That is why the real battle within APC is not simply about ticket; it is about the assurance that the party’s base across the three senatorial districts can be effectively harnessed and mobilized.
This primary contest becomes even more strategic when placed side by side with the current state of the opposition in Ogun. Indeed, a close analysis of the opposition strength in Ogun State has revealed that the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), the Labor Party (LP) and other opposition parties have been choked out and are struggling to breathe.
Ogun State is one of the states in the country where opposition parties are fizzling out of existence, thus leaving the APC as the most dominant and most formidable party in the state. This reality has not only weakened alternative platforms, it has also shifted the real battleground squarely into the APC itself, where the struggle is now less about defeating the opposition and more about who becomes the rightful heir to the party’s expansive political machinery.
In other words, Ogun 2027 may largely be decided within the APC primary process because the ruling party remains the strongest force with the widest reach across the state. In such a political climate, the leading aspirant will be the one who can convincingly speak to equity, inspire confidence as a competent leader, command strong grassroots machinery, and build a coalition that transcends local sentiments.
It is against this backdrop that Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, stands out as the most prominent and strategically positioned figure in the emerging contest. His visibility, political organization and growing statewide momentum continue to shape perceptions of the race. More importantly, he appears to embody both the moral agitation appeal and the broader electability factor required to win not just a party primary but the general election itself.
While the field remains crowded and consultations are still unfolding, the signals from across the state suggest that he currently enjoys the strongest combination of structure, popularity and political momentum among the aspirants.
Ultimately, as Ogun State moves steadily toward 2027, the contest will remain crowded with ambition and speculation, but the candidate most likely to rise above the crowd will be the one with the widest reach, the deepest structure and the strongest winning capacity. On the strength of current realities, Senator Yayi still remains the leading candidate to lift the flag of the APC and ultimately win the forthcoming gubernatorial election in Ogun State.
Oladele, former Chairman of House of Reps Committee on Financial Crimes, is a Federal Character Commissioner representing Ogun State
